Modèle:

Mise à jour:

24 times per day, from 00:00 - 23:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 13:00 CET

Résolution:

0.128° x 0.123°

Paramètre:

Geopotential height (tens of m) at 925 hPa (solid line) and Temperature (°C) at 925 hPa (coloured, dashed line)

Description:

This chart helps to identify areas of densely packed isotherms (lines of equal temperature) indicating a front. Aside from this you can use the modeled temperature in 925 hPa (2000 ft a.s.l.) to make a rough estimate on the expected maximum temperature in 2m above the ground. However, this method does not apply to (winter) inversions.

Spaghetti plots:

are a method of viewing data from an ensemble forecast.
A meteorological variable e.g. pressure, temperature is drawn on a chart for a number of slightly different model runs from an ensemble. The model can then be stepped forward in time and the results compared and be used to gauge the amount of uncertainty in the forecast.
If there is good agreement and the contours follow a recognisable pattern through the sequence then the confidence in the forecast can be high, conversely if the pattern is chaotic i.e resembling a plate of spaghetti then confidence will be low. Ensemble members will generally diverge over time and spaghetti plots are quick way to see when this happens.

Spaghetti plot. (2009, July 7). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 20:22, February 9, 2010, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Spaghetti_plot&oldid=300824682

RAP:

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised primarily of a numerical forecast model and analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 13 km and 50 vertical layers. ,
The RAP was developed to serve users needing frequently updated short-range weather forecasts, including those in the US aviation community and US severe weather forecasting community. The model is run for every hour of day and is integrated to 18 hours for each cycle. The RAP uses the ARW core of the WRF model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis - the analysis is aided with the assimilation of cloud and hydrometeor data to provide more skill in short-range cloud and precipitation forecasts.

NWP:

La prévision numérique du temps (PNT) est une application de la météorologie et de l'informatique. Elle repose sur le choix d'équations mathématiques offrant une proche approximation du comportement de l'atmosphère réelle. Ces équations sont ensuite résolues, à l'aide d'un ordinateur, pour obtenir une simulation accélérée des états futurs de l'atmosphère. Le logiciel mettant en œuvre cette simulation est appelé un modèle de prévision numérique du temps.


Prévision numérique du temps. (2009, décembre 12). Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Page consultée le 20:48, février 9, 2010 à partir de http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pr%C3%A9vision_num%C3%A9rique_du_temps&oldid=47652746.