Modèle:

Mise à jour:

4 times per day, from 06:00, 12:00, 18:00, and 00:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 14:00 CEST

Résolution:

0.05° x 0.05°

Paramètre:

Precipitation in mm (or litres per square metres)

Description:

The precipitation map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modeled precipitation in mm. The precipitation areas are encircled by isohyets - lines with equal amounts of precipitation. However, modeling precipitation is still not very reliable. If you compare the modeled results with observed values you will realize that the model is nothing better than a first order approach. Yet this chart is of some use for forecasters.
Note: Based on international convention meteorologists use the metric system. 100 mm of precipitation is equivalent to roughly 4 inches.

Spaghetti plots:

are a method of viewing data from an ensemble forecast.
A meteorological variable e.g. pressure, temperature is drawn on a chart for a number of slightly different model runs from an ensemble. The model can then be stepped forward in time and the results compared and be used to gauge the amount of uncertainty in the forecast.
If there is good agreement and the contours follow a recognisable pattern through the sequence then the confidence in the forecast can be high, conversely if the pattern is chaotic i.e resembling a plate of spaghetti then confidence will be low. Ensemble members will generally diverge over time and spaghetti plots are quick way to see when this happens.

Spaghetti plot. (2009, July 7). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 20:22, February 9, 2010, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Spaghetti_plot&oldid=300824682

HARMONIE:

HARMONIE-AROME The non-hydrostatic convection-permitting HARMONIE-AROME model is developed in a code cooperation of the HIRLAM Consortium with Météo-France and ALADIN, and builds upon model components that have largely initially been developed in these two communities. The forecast model and analysis of HARMONIE-AROME are originally based on the AROME-France model from Météo-France (Seity et al, 2011, Brousseau et al, 2011) , but differ from the AROME-France configuration in various respects. A detailed description of the HARMONIE-AROME forecast model setup and its similarities and differences with respect to AROME-France can be found in (Bengtsson et al. 2017). [From: HIRLAM (2017)]

NWP:

La prévision numérique du temps (PNT) est une application de la météorologie et de l'informatique. Elle repose sur le choix d'équations mathématiques offrant une proche approximation du comportement de l'atmosphère réelle. Ces équations sont ensuite résolues, à l'aide d'un ordinateur, pour obtenir une simulation accélérée des états futurs de l'atmosphère. Le logiciel mettant en œuvre cette simulation est appelé un modèle de prévision numérique du temps.


Prévision numérique du temps. (2009, décembre 12). Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Page consultée le 20:48, février 9, 2010 à partir de http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pr%C3%A9vision_num%C3%A9rique_du_temps&oldid=47652746.