模式:

Times Series from the ECMWF

更新:
Update monthly
格林尼治平时:
12:00 UTC = 20:00 北京时间
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
参量:
z T 925 hPa
描述:
850百帕位势高度(位势什米,实线)。
850百帕温度(°C,彩色虚线)。

这幅图帮您识别用于确定锋面的等温线密集区。 此外,您还能根据 模式计算出的850百帕温度粗略地估计地面以上2米的最高温度。 不过,当出现(冬季)逆温时,这种方法不适用。

Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
©Copernicus
模式:

Times Series from the ECMWF

更新:
Update monthly
格林尼治平时:
12:00 UTC = 20:00 北京时间
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
参量:
Geopotential height (tens of m) at 925 hPa (solid line) and Temperature (°C) at 925 hPa (coloured, dashed line)
描述:
This chart helps to identify areas of densely packed isotherms (lines of equal temperature) indicating a front. Aside from this you can use the modeled temperature in 925 hPa (2000 ft a.s.l.) to make a rough estimate on the expected maximum temperature in 2m above the ground. However, this method does not apply to (winter) inversions.
Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
©Copernicus